Jan. 10, 2020

President Trump starts off 2020 having presided over a lower average unemployment rate than any president at a comparable point in office in recorded history.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the unemployment rate held steady at a historically low 3.5% in December. Since February 2017, Trump's first full month in office, the monthly unemployment rate has averaged 3.9%. No prior president has averaged less than 4% over the first 35 months of his presidency. The closest was Dwight Eisenhower, when the rate averaged 4.3% between February 1953 and December 1955.

Modern unemployment statistics did not start being kept until 1948, after Harry Truman's first 35 months in office, so this analysis only starts with Eisenhower. Nonetheless, it does point to the unprecedented nature of this consistently low level of unemployment.

To be sure, this statistic isn't predictive of the election outcome. The economy is only one of many factors that voters use to evaluate incumbent presidents. Also, voters tend to weigh the trend of the economy, which is not reflected in the average. For instance, George H.W. Bush averaged lower unemployment during the first 35 months of his presidency than his predecessor, Ronald Reagan. But the Reagan economy started weak, then expanded rapidly in the run-up to his reelection, whereas Bush inherited an economy in decent shape and was voted out of office when it had declined.

But Trumps case is unique because he took over a recovering economy with unemployment already at 4.6%, and the rate continued to go down and stay low. So now he starts off his potential reelection year with a record of consistently low unemployment that's currently holding steady at 3.5%.

It is still possible the economy will decline in time for it to hurt Trump in the election

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Ford will build its self-driving cars in U.S.

March 22, 2019


When the first self-driving cars from Ford are ready for the road, they'll leave a Michigan assembly plant. The automaker said that part of a $900 million investment includes plans for a new facility near Detroit to assemble its autonomous vehicles starting in 2021.

Workers at the new plant will be tasked with installing self-driving car components and also unique interiors since the test vehicles will initially be built on what the automaker's calling a "commercial-grade" hybrid. Ford is targeting a utilitarian mission for its first self-driving vehicles rather than selling them directly to customers.

Ford has put a greater focus on its self-driving vehicle operations in the last year. Last summer, the automaker injected $4 billion into the operation, which came as FordAutonomous Vehicles LLC announced it would headquarter its operations at a long-abandoned, multi-story train station in the Corktown neighborhood of Detroit. VW is also set to invest almost $2 billion in Ford's self-driving car business as the two automakers look to expand a loose partnership from commercial vehicles and pickup trucks to long-range products.

Outside of the self-driving car production, Ford's investment sum will also see new electric cars assembled at the automaker's Flat Rock assembly plant in Michigan. In total, $850 million will be funneled into the facility to add a second shift and around 900 new jobs. Further, the investment covers funds for the next-generation Ford Mustang as well.

Light bulb factory closes; End of era for U.S. means more jobs overseas. American flag seller files for bankruptcy

The remaining 200 workers at the plant here will lose their jobs.

"Now what're we going to do?" said Toby Savolainen, 49, who like many others worked for decades at the factory, making bulbs now deemed wasteful.

During the recession, political and business leaders have held out the promise that American advances, particularly in green technology, might stem the decades-long decline in U.S. manufacturing jobs. But as the lighting industry shows, even when the government pushes companies toward environmental innovations and Americans come up with them, the manufacture of the next generation technology can still end up overseas.

What made the plant here vulnerable is, in part, a 2007 energy conservation measure passed by Congress that set standards essentially banning ordinary incandescents by 2014. The law will force millions of American households to switch to more efficient bulbs.

The resulting savings in energy and greenhouse-gas emissions are expected to be immense. But the move also had unintended consequences.

Rather than setting off a boom in the U.S. manufacture of replacement lights, the leading replacement lights are compact fluorescents, or CFLs, which are made almost entirely overseas, mostly in China.

Consisting of glass tubes twisted into a spiral, they require more hand labor, which is cheaper there. So though they were first developed by American engineers in the 1970s, none of the major brands make CFLs in the United States.

"Everybody's jumping on the green bandwagon," said Pat Doyle, 54, who has worked at the plant for 26 years. But "we've been sold out. First sold out by the government. Then sold out by GE. "

Doyle was speaking after a shift last month surrounded by several co-workers around a picnic table near the punch clock. Many of the workers have been at the plant for decades, and most appeared to be in their 40s and 50s. Several worried aloud about finding another job.

"When you're 50 years old, no one wants you," Savolainen said. It was meant half in jest, but some of the men nod grimly.

Under the pressures of globalization, the number of manufacturing jobs in the United States has been shrinking for decades, from 19.5 million in 1979 to 11.6 million this year, a decline of 40 percent.

At textile mills in North Carolina, at auto parts plants in Ohio, at other assorted manufacturing plants around the country, the closures have pushed workers out, often leaving them to face an onslaught of personal defeats: lower wages, community college retraining and unemployment checks.

In Obama's vision, the nation's mastery of new technology will create American manufacturing jobs.

"See, when folks lift up the hoods on the cars of the future, I want them to see engines stamped "Made in America," Obama said in an Aug. 16 speech at a Wisconsin plant. "When new batteries to store solar power come off the line, I want to see printed on the side, "Made in America." When new technologies are developed and new industries are formed, I want them made right here in America. That's what we're fighting for." But a closer look at the lighting industry reveals that isn't going to be easy.

At one time, the United States was ahead of the game in CFLs.

Following the 1973 energy crisis, a GE engineer named Ed Hammer and others at the company's famed Nela Park research laboratories were tinkering with different methods of saving electricity with fluorescent lights.

In a standard incandescent bulb, in which the filament is electrified until it glows, only about 10 percent of the electricity is transformed into light; the rest generates heat as a side effect. A typical fluorescent uses about 75 percent less electricity than an incandescent to produce the same amount of light.

Once again, we see how Globalization destroys the American economy. Our leaders want us to be on par with the poorer countries...how sad this is for the average American worker...we must continue to bow down to globalization and lose our American identity and prosperity as well.

American flag seller files for bankruptcy

When selling the business of patriotism, put emphasis on the red.

A little over a week before America celebrates its 236th birthday, Wisconsin-based flag seller Liberty Flag & Specialty Co. filed for bankruptcy protection.

Running low on cash, the nine-employee shop located half a block south of Reedsburg�s Main Street immediately asked its bankruptcy judge for permission to spend the pools of money that it had promised to set aside for its lender, Community First Bank. The cash will keep the lights on at its headquarters as executives figure out if the company can find a way to survive using Chapter 11 protection.

Liberty Flags financial hardship, which is coming at the peak of the industrys flag-selling season, raises broader concern about Americans sense of civic spirit.

Or is the bankruptcy another sign of the slow drip of manufacturing jobs to cheaper overseas markets? The U.S. Census Bureau noted Tuesday in their perennial round-up of Fourth of July-centric facts that the U.S. imported $3.6 million worth of American flags last year. China alone shipped more than $3.3 million worth of flags.

Liberty Flag executives did not return a phone message, and the companys bankruptcy attorney declined to explain why the company fell suddenly short on cash.

But the folks at Liberty Flag's biggest business partner, nearby Eder Flag Manufacturing outside of Milwaukee insisted that the financial hardship isnt evenly spread.

Eder Flags roughly 180 employees stitched together about 6.5 million U.S. flags during the last year to keep up with growing demand, said Jodi Goglio, Eder Flags director of operations. Sales of flagpoles outpaced flag sales with a 10% growth rate, she said.

For us, that is a good indication that new construction is on the rise and people have increased their discretionary spending, she told Bankruptcy Beat, adding that she found the amount of foreign-made American flags brought into the country is appalling.

As for Liberty Flags $205,931.30 debt to Eder Flag, Goglio explained that Libertys bill was more than two years old. Liberty Flag, which bought Eder-made flags to sell them to customers and retailers, bought its first batch in 1984

Fortune - How Washington can renew U.S. manufacturing

The Revitalizing American Manufacturing and Innovation Act has bi-partisan support and would boost a critical segment of the U.S. economy, says Karen Mills, a senior fellow at Harvard Business School and Harvard Kennedy School

Congress is back in Washington with the intent to get some key things done between now and the end of the year. One of those things needs to be making an investment in our economy by passing the Revitalizing American Manufacturing and Innovation (RAMI) Act, which would invest in a key segment of the U.S. economy: manufacturing. Here?s why.

Americans are tired of partisanships stymieing progress, and they are overdue for a sign from Washington that our leaders haven?t forgotten what agreement looks like.

More importantly, passing this bill would invest in the sector that has the greatest impact on our economy ? every $1 spent in manufacturing generates another $1.35 in additional economic activity, which is more than is generated by any other sector, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. It also demonstrates an understanding of what it will take to continue to drive our nation?s competitiveness and create the kinds of good-paying jobs that offer a path to the American Dream.

Now, that?s a lot to put on the shoulders of a piece of legislation that most Americans haven?t heard of. But, it?s true and it?s achievable.

So what would RAMI do? It would establish up to 15 manufacturing institutes across the country ? building on four that were already created by the Obama Administration. To do this, it would bring together government, colleges and universities, research institutions, business and industry in partnership to accelerate manufacturing innovation.

American workers would be the greatest beneficiaries of RAMI because, at its core, it invests in the U.S. labor force by building skills and capacity around the very good-paying jobs that will maintain our nation?s competitive edge in the 21st Century.

With Washington caught in a cycle of perpetual gridlock, agreement may not seem possible, but that?s not true. RAMI passed the House in September with bipartisan support, cosponsored by Republican Congressman Tom Reed of New York and Democratic Congressman Joe Kennedy of Massachusetts. The bill is awaiting action in the Senate, where it is backed by Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Republican Sen. Roy Blunt of Missouri.

While much attention is focused on the prospects for agreement on higher profile issues, here?s an idea. Why not move on RAMI, where the differences have already been sorted out and bipartisan support already exists?

One thing we can take away from the midterm elections is that working Americans are tired of gridlock and they have lost confidence in Washington?s ability to actually address the root causes of the economic anxiety they are feeling. An August NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that 71% of respondents blamed Washington?s inaction for what they view as a lingering sluggish economy.

While large businesses have flourished and the stock market has reached new highs amid a falling unemployment rate, Americans are losing confidence that it?s possible to move up in the world. In fact, in a September survey by the Public Religion Research Institute, only 42% of respondents believe the American Dream ? that if you work hard, you?ll get ahead ? still holds true.

Americans are anxious about the economy. And, rather than more gridlock, Washington should take action where it can. Even if this means starting small, and passing a few things where there is already agreement.

I?m not saying we should step away from the big policy issues. But, real tax reform will take time, and closing loopholes will cause pain in many sectors. Immigration reform is critical, and may be something on which parties can agree in the year ahead.

RAMI is ready to move. It doesnt cost much ? in government terms ? and if not passed in the next few weeks, its backers will have to start over again in the new Congress after the first of the year.

Americans need Congress to get back in the habit of agreeing on and actually passing bipartisan legislation. RAMI is one place to start.

By passing this bill, Congress can show working Americans that they do understand how to invest in building the kind of jobs that will strengthen U.S. competitiveness around the globe and restore the path to the American Dream.

About the author: Karen Mills is a senior fellow at Harvard Business School and Harvard Kennedy School focused on competitiveness, entrepreneurship and innovation. She was a member of President Obama?s Cabinet, serving as Administrator of the U.S. Small Business Administration from 2009 to 2013.